A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
