Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
